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A Diffusion-Based Framework for High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasting over CONUS

Vicens-Miquel, Marina, McGovern, Amy, Hill, Aaron J., Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi, Guilloteau, Clement, Shen, Samuel S. P.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate precipitation forecasting is essential for hydrometeorological risk management, especially for anticipating extreme rainfall that can lead to flash flooding and infrastructure damage. This study introduces a diffusion-based deep learning (DL) framework that systematically compares three residual prediction strategies differing only in their input sources: (1) a fully data-driven model using only past observations from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system, (2) a corrective model using only forecasts from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction system, and (3) a hybrid model integrating both MRMS and selected HRRR forecast variables. By evaluating these approaches under a unified setup, we provide a clearer understanding of how each data source contributes to predictive skill over the Continental United States (CONUS). Forecasts are produced at 1-km spatial resolution, beginning with direct 1-hour predictions and extending to 12 hours using autoregressive rollouts. Performance is evaluated using both CONUS-wide and region-specific metrics that assess overall performance and skill at extreme rainfall thresholds. Across all lead times, our DL framework consistently outperforms the HRRR baseline in pixel-wise and spatiostatistical metrics. The hybrid model performs best at the shortest lead time, while the HRRR-corrective model outperforms others at longer lead times, maintaining high skill through 12 hours. To assess reliability, we incorporate calibrated uncertainty quantification tailored to the residual learning setup. These gains, particularly at longer lead times, are critical for emergency preparedness, where modest increases in forecast horizon can improve decision-making. This work advances DL-based precipitation forecasting by enhancing predictive skill, reliability, and applicability across regions.



Advanced Torrential Loss Function for Precipitation Forecasting

Choi, Jaeho, Kim, Hyeri, Kim, Kwang-Ho, Lee, Jaesung

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate precipitation forecasting is becoming increasingly important in the context of climate change. In response, machine learning-based approaches have recently gained attention as an emerging alternative to traditional methods such as numerical weather prediction and climate models. Nonetheless, many recent approaches still rely on off-the-shelf loss functions, and even the more advanced ones merely involve optimization processes based on the critical success index (CSI). The problem, however, is that CSI may become ineffective during extended dry periods when precipitation remains below the threshold, rendering it less than ideal as a criterion for optimization. To address this limitation, we introduce a simple penalty expression and reinterpret it as a quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) formulation. Ultimately, the resulting QUBO formulation is relaxed into a differentiable advanced torrential (AT) loss function through an approximation process. The proposed AT loss demonstrates its superiority through the Lipschitz constant, forecast performance evaluations, consistency experiments, and ablation studies with the operational model.




From Binary to Bilingual: How the National Weather Service is Using Artificial Intelligence to Develop a Comprehensive Translation Program

Trujillo-Falcon, Joseph E., Bozeman, Monica L., Llewellyn, Liam E., Halvorson, Samuel T., Mizell, Meryl, Deshpande, Stuti, Manning, Bob, Fagin, Todd

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

To advance a Weather-Ready Nation, the National Weather Service (NWS) is developing a systematic translation program to better serve the 68.8 million people in the U.S. who do not speak English at home. This article outlines the foundation of an automated translation tool for NWS products, powered by artificial intelligence. The NWS has partnered with LILT, whose patented training process enables large language models (LLMs) to adapt neural machine translation (NMT) tools for weather terminology and messaging. Designed for scalability across Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and National Centers, the system is currently being developed in Spanish, Simplified Chinese, Vietnamese, and other widely spoken non-English languages. Rooted in best practices for multilingual risk communication, the system provides accurate, timely, and culturally relevant translations, significantly reducing manual translation time and easing operational workloads across the NWS. To guide the distribution of these products, GIS mapping was used to identify language needs across different NWS regions, helping prioritize resources for the communities that need them most. We also integrated ethical AI practices throughout the program's design, ensuring that transparency, fairness, and human oversight guide how automated translations are created, evaluated, and shared with the public. This work has culminated into a website featuring experimental multilingual NWS products, including translated warnings, 7-day forecasts, and educational campaigns, bringing the country one step closer to a national warning system that reaches all Americans.


A Comprehensive Taxonomy of Negation for NLP and Neural Retrievers

Petcu, Roxana, Bhargav, Samarth, de Rijke, Maarten, Kanoulas, Evangelos

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Understanding and solving complex reasoning tasks is vital for addressing the information needs of a user. Although dense neural models learn contextualised embeddings, they still underperform on queries containing negation. To understand this phenomenon, we study negation in both traditional neural information retrieval and LLM-based models. We (1) introduce a taxonomy of negation that derives from philosophical, linguistic, and logical definitions; (2) generate two benchmark datasets that can be used to evaluate the performance of neural information retrieval models and to fine-tune models for a more robust performance on negation; and (3) propose a logic-based classification mechanism that can be used to analyze the performance of retrieval models on existing datasets. Our taxonomy produces a balanced data distribution over negation types, providing a better training setup that leads to faster convergence on the NevIR dataset. Moreover, we propose a classification schema that reveals the coverage of negation types in existing datasets, offering insights into the factors that might affect the generalization of fine-tuned models on negation.


Signal-to-Noise Ratio in Scanning Electron Microscopy: A Comprehensive Review

Sim, K. S., Bukhori, I., Ong, D. C. Y., Gan, K. B.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) is critical in nanotechnology, materials science, and biological imaging due to its high spatial resolution and depth of focus. Signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is an essential parameter in SEM because it directly impacts the quality and interpretability of the images. SEM is widely used in various scientific disciplines, but its utility can be compromised by noise, which degrades image clarity. This review explores multiple aspects of the SEM imaging process, from the principal operation of SEM, sources of noise in SEM, methods for SNR measurement and estimations, to various aspects that affect the SNR measurement and approaches to enhance SNR, both from a hardware and software standpoint. We review traditional and emerging techniques, focusing on their applications, advantages, and limitations. The paper aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of SNR optimization in SEM for researchers and practitioners and to encourage further research in the field.


Road Surface Condition Detection with Machine Learning using New York State Department of Transportation Camera Images and Weather Forecast Data

Sutter, Carly, Sulia, Kara J., Bassill, Nick P., Wirz, Christopher D., Thorncroft, Christopher D., Rothenberger, Jay C., Przybylo, Vanessa, Cains, Mariana G., Radford, Jacob, Evans, David Aaron

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The NYSDOT evaluates road conditions by driving on roads and observing live cameras, tasks which are labor-intensive but necessary for making critical operational decisions during winter weather events. However, machine learning models can provide additional support for the NYSDOT by automatically classifying current road conditions across the state. In this study, convolutional neural networks and random forests are trained on camera images and weather data to predict road surface conditions. Models are trained on a hand-labeled dataset of 22,000 camera images, each classified by human labelers into one of six road surface conditions: severe snow, snow, wet, dry, poor visibility, or obstructed. Model generalizability is prioritized to meet the operational needs of the NYSDOT decision makers, and the weather-related road surface condition model in this study achieves an accuracy of 81.5% on completely unseen cameras. Keywords Winter weather Co-design Artificial intelligence Risk communication Hand-labeled dataset Highlights Developed a model to classify road surface conditions using image and weather data Achieved accuracy of 81.5% on completely unseen cameras for weather-related classes Integrated co-design with end-users and interdisciplinary collaboration Designed methods that prioritize model generalizability for operational applicability